IPCC Report – 6th Assessment – Implications on Asia YouTube Lecture Handouts

Get unlimited access to the best preparation resource for CDS : get questions, notes, tests, video lectures and more- for all subjects of CDS.

IPCC 6th Assessment - Implications on India & South Asia - High & Medium Confidence | NET UPSC

High Confidence

  • Mean Surface Temperature
  • marine heatwaves
  • mean surface wind speed in central & north Asia
  • sea level
  • glaciers
  • dry-north and wet-south pattern of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation change

Medium Confidence

  • fire weather seasons
  • precipitation
  • glacier runoff
  • precipitation in long run

The South and Southeast Asian monsoon has weakened in the second half of the 20th century (high confidence) . The dominant cause of the observed decrease of South and Southeast Asian monsoon precipitation since mid-20th century is anthropogenic aerosol forcing.

The South and Southeast Asian Monsoon
  • The concentrations of lethal air pollutants such as Sulphur dioxide , nitrogen dioxide , ammonia , ozone and Particulate Matter 2.5 are at their highest in south Asia, when compared to other parts of the world.
  • The revelation came in Chapter 6 of the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. The chapter is titled Short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) .
  • SLFCs are different from greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, the effect of which on the climate endures till centuries. But the effects of these compounds are short-term.
  • They have a warming or cooling effect on the climate. Gases such as methane and have a warming effect. Other SLCFs that warm climate include soot, also known as black carbon. These do so by absorbing energy.
  • On the other hand, aerosols are tiny particles that include sulphates and nitrates (like and ) that cool the climate by reflecting sunlight.
  • concentrations have grown 50 per cent over south Asia due to the rapid expansion of the power sector in India
  • Northern India or specifically the Indo-Gangetic Plain was one among three large agricultural regions along with the US Midwest and Central Valley, where high ammonia concentrations were seen due to large-scale burning of biomass.
  • The major sources of PM 2.5 in India were biomass and coal fuel-based cooking and heating, with secondary contributions from energy and industry.
  • Concentration of air pollutants significantly increasing over India

Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCF)

Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCF)

South Asia

  • Heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent during the 21st century.
  • Both annual and summer monsoon precipitation will increase during the 21st century, with enhanced interannual variability
  • The South and Southeast Asian monsoon has weakened in the second half of the 20th century (high confidence) . The dominant cause of the observed decrease of South and Southeast Asian monsoon precipitation since mid-20th century is anthropogenic aerosol forcing.
    • North Asia (WSB, ESB, RFE)
    • Southwest Asia (WCA, ARP)
    • East Asia (EAS, ECA)
    • Tibetan Plateau (TIB)
    • Southeast Asia (SEA)
    • South Asia (SAS)
  • Tibetan - Over most of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, snow cover has reduced since the early 21st century, and glaciers have retreated and lost mass since the 1970s. The Karakoram glaciers have remained either in a balanced state or slightly gained mass. During the 21st century, snow-covered areas and snow volumes will decrease in most of the Hindu Kush Himalayan, and snowline elevations will rise and glacier volumes will decline (high confidence) . A general wetting across the whole Tibetan Plateau and the Himalaya is projected, with increases in heavy precipitation in the 21st century

Manishika