Deep Depression Intensified into a Cyclonic Storm “SAGAR” over Gulf of Aden

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Deep depression in Arabian Sea intensified into cyclone “Sagar” - 1st cyclonic storm of season to develop in Indian waters on 16th May 2018. Sagar is most likely to continue tracking westwards during next 12 hours & then west-south-westwards in subsequent 24 hours, while sea conditions are expected to remain rough.

“Sagar” - 1StCyclonic Storm

Position of Sagar & Expected Movements

  • At present, cyclone Sagar is seen over the Gulf of Aden near latitude 13.2°N & longitude 48.7°E, around 400 km east-northeast of Aden in Yemen & 560 km west-northwest of Socotra Islands.
  • W/system moving in open waters, it is expected to gain more strength & sustain strength of tropical storm for at least next 12 hours.
  • Thereafter, as predicted earlier, system would gradually start weakening on account of close proximity to coast.

Sagar

  • Tropical Depression 1A was named ‘Sagar’ by Indian Meteorological Department, agency w/primary responsibility of tropical cyclone forecasting in North Indian Ocean, including Arabian Sea.

What is Cyclonic Storm?

  • Tropical cyclone is anintense low-pressure area or whirl in atmosphere over tropical or sub-tropical waters, w/organized convection (i.e.. thunderstorm activity) & winds at low levels, circulating either anti-clockwise (in northern hemisphere) or clockwise (in southern hemisphere) .

Process of Forming Cyclones

Tropical cyclones require certain conditions for their formation:

  • Source of warm, moist air derived from tropical oceans w/sea surface temperature normally near to or in excess of 27 °C
  • Winds near ocean surface blowing from diff. directions converging & causing air to rise & storm clouds to form
  • Winds which do not vary greatly w/height - known as low wind shear. This allows storm clouds to rise vertically to high levels;
  • Coriolis force is induced by rotation of Earth. Formation mechanisms vary across world, but once cluster of storm clouds starts to rotate, it becomes tropical depression. If it continues to develop, it becomes tropical storm, & later cyclone/super cyclone.

Impact in India

  • Cyclonic storm, Sagar is less likely to have any significant impact on coastal Gujarat as storm is moving towards Gulf of Oman.
  • State administration has already initiated precautionary measures including hosting of Distant Warning (DW) signal number 2 at all major ports along Gujarat coast.

Warning

  • High wind speed: Gale winds speed reaching 75 - 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph is very likely around system centre covering Gulf of Aden & adjoining areas of west central & southwest Arabian Sea during next 12 hrs & gradual decrease thereafter becoming 65 - 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph during subsequent 12 hours.
  • Sea condition: Sea conditions will be high around system centre covering Gulf of Aden & adjoining areas of west-central & south-west of Arabian Sea during next 24 hours.
  • Fisherman: Fisherman is advised not to venture into Gulf of Aden & adjoining areas of west-central & south-west Arabian Sea during next 48 hours.

Conclusion

  • Cyclonic storm is expected to lead to severe flash flooding & river flooding across region resulting in loss of human life, livestock, & destruction of crops, property & infrastructure.
  • Very heavy rainfall occurring across Western Yemen is likely to promote cholera infection rates in week ahead.
  • Though storm is not going to affect Indian coastmuch, but IMD has generated early warning in Indian coastal regions to avoid any mishappenings.

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