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Next Week! ! VONA – Volcanic Eruptions 📹. What is Monsoon Mission? : India-UK collaboration – proposed in 2010, Launched by Ministry of Earth Sciences, Has been coordinated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.

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Monsoon Mission - CFS & UM (Current Affairs/GS 2018) - (In English)

Dr. Manishika Jain explains Monsoon Mission - Basis - CFS and UM model

Total budget estimates – Rs. 290 crore

Dynamic models can be used along with agricultural and hydrological models – real time information on wind, temperature and humidity in digitized format

Objectives of Monsoon Mission:

  • To setup a state of the art dynamical modeling frame work for improving prediction skill of

    • Seasonal and extended range prediction system

    • Short and medium range prediction system

  • To setup the infrastructure and manpower required to improve the prediction skill at all time scales (long, seasonal, extended, medium and short range) over Indian region

  • To build a working partnership between the Academic/Research & Development Organizations and the Operational Agency to improve the monsoon forecast skill.

Table Contain Shows the build a working partnership between the Academic/Research & Development Organizations and the Operational Agency to improve the monsoon forecast skill

Table Contain Shows the build a working partnership between the Academic/Research & Development Organizations and the Operational Agency to improve the monsoon forecast skill

2012 - 2013

  • Experimental real-time seasonal prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon, using ocean –atmosphere coupled dynamical model CFSv2, was initiated at IITM and the predictions were provided to IMD.

  • Short range forecasts were provided by IMD and medium range by NCMRWF (using UM of UKMO), with reasonably good skill.

2013 - 14

  • Experimental real-time Extended Range Prediction of active and break spells (ERPAS) of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, up to 4 pentad lead (i. e. , 20 days in advance) was initiated at IITM, using an indigenously developed Ensemble Prediction system (EPS), based on the state-of-the-art CFSv2.

2014 - 2015

  • “Extended Range Prediction of active and break spells” was certified with ISO 9001: 2008 standards in 2015, as it was one of the best prediction systems in the world to predict active/break cycle of Monsoon with moderate prediction skill.

  • IITM initiated to provide Outlook of major climate phenomena (e. g. El-Nino & IOD). Lot of model development works were carried out for improving the physics (land surface, convection, sea-ice, microphysics, etc. ) of the model and model resolution was increased.

2015 - 2016

  • In – house Ocean Data Assimilation system was set up. India could predict 2015 drought with good accuracy when all other world leading Climate centers were suggesting that it will be near normal monsoon year.

2016 - 2017

  • Short-range prediction efforts were recently initiated by IITM. A state of the art Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), based on 21 ensemble member, have been implemented at ESSO-IITM for generating high resolution short range forecast.

  • Hot weather season outlook for 2016 summer (April-June) is issued

2017 Prediction

  • IMD has forecast that quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96 % of the Long Period Average (LPA) with an error of ± 5%.
  • Forecast assessment suggests 38 % of probability for near normal monsoon rainfall.
  • Forecast depends on both Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) & Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS). IMD’s SEFS model for the April forecast uses the following 5 predictors that require data monitored up to March.
  • Forecast assessment suggests 38 % of probability for near normal monsoon rainfall

Table Contain Shows the Predictor

Table Contain Shows the Predictor

Predictor

Period

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Gradient between North Atlantic and North Pacific

December + January

Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST

February

East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure

February + March

NW Europe Land Surface Air Temperature

January

Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume

February + March

Base Model

Climate Forecast System (CFS)

Given by National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), NOAA National Weather Service, USA - one of the best among the currently available coupled models

Moderate skill for retrospective forecast (hindcast) of seasonal monsoon rainfall and this skill must be improved further

Coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system that combine data from ocean, atmosphere and land for providing long range forecasting (seasonal prediction of Indian Monsoon)

  • Implemented to Prithvi High Performance Computer (HPC) at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune

  • Ocean initial conditions from Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad

  • Atmospheric initial conditions from National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), NOIDA

Improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season)

Improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of IMD.

Version 2

  • Atmospheric component of CFSv2 is Global Forecast System (GFS) with spectral resolution of T126 and 64 hybrid vertical levels

  • Ocean component is Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Flexible Modeling System (FMS) Modular Ocean Model version 4p0d

  • Employs rapid radiative transfer model shortwave radiation with maximum random cloud overlap with four layer NOAH land surface model & two layer dynamical sea ice model

Unified Model (UM)

  • Developed by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), UK.

  • Utilized for short to medium range prediction and Model developments on UKMO will be implemented by NCMRWF in association with IMD.

  • Resolution of 25 km and 70 levels in the vertical

Need for Model

  • Prediction with 6 months lead time

  • Based on dynamical numerical model

  • Summer monsoon period drives the major atmospheric circulations

For the first time, India Meteorological Department used the Monsoon Mission dynamical model to prepare operational seasonal forecast of 2017 monsoon rainfall over India.

IMD in collaboration with Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) provides district level agro meteorological advisories to farmers through 130 agromet field units. Currently, about 22 million farmers are receiving crop specific agro-meteorological advisories in vernacular languages. These advisories are used for critical farm operations Viz.

  • Management of sowing (Delayed onset of rains)

  • Changing crop variety (Delay in rainfall)

  • Spraying Pesticides for disease control (occurrence of rainfall)

  • Managing Irrigation (Heavy rainfall Forecast)

History of Monsoon Forecast

  • 1st official seasonal monsoon forecast was issued by Sir Henry Blanford in 1886 which was based entirely on Himalayan snowfall.

  • John Eliot used extra- Indian factors, viz. , and pressure of Mauritus, Zanzibar and Seychelles in the monsoon forecast of 1896.

  • Sir Gilbert Walker who laid the basis for a forecast on a statistical association, was the first meteorologist who systematically examined the relationship between Indian monsoon rainfall and global circulation parameters

  • Walker selected 28 predictors to issue forecast based on regression equation during the year 1906

  • Now – Statistical prediction system for long range forecast of Indian Monsoons

  • Dynamic prediction models - standalone atmosphere and/or coupled ocean–atmosphere models based on physics

India Meteorological Department (IMD)

IMD issues three types of forecasts during the monsoon season i. e.

  • Seasonal forecast (for the whole season)

  • Extended range forecast (10 - 30 days)

    • 30 - 60 day oscillation has a very large zonal scale encompassing both the south Asia and the East Asia/West north Pacific monsoon regions. It is characterized by a northward propagation

    • 10 - 20 day oscillation has a smaller zonal scale and is regional in character. It is characterized by a westward propagation.

  • Short-medium range forecast (0 - 10 days) - Difficult in Numerical Weather prediction due to complex interactions. Improvements due to

    • Improvements in model dynamics and physics

    • Better observations.

    • Careful use of forecast and observations, allowing for their information content and errors - achieved by variational assimilation e. g. , of satellite radiances

    • Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (4D-VAR)

    • Hybrid ensemble DA

These forecasts are issued based on dynamical and statistical models.

IMD has one of the best forecasting mechanisms for predicting tropical cyclones using high resolution advanced mathematical models and a suite of quality observations from Satellites and Radars.

IMD operates 24X7 monitoring of satellite and Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) based weather monitoring over the potential cyclogenic zones of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea for monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones.

IMD provides meteorological support to the Central Water Commission (CWC) for issuing flood warnings. The allocation for the Monsoon Mission for the period 2012 - 17 was Rs. 400.00 crores and for the period 2017 - 20 is Rs. 151 crores.

  • Set up a Centre at Mangalagiri in Andhra Pradesh

  • Set up a Centre at Bengaluru in Karnataka

  • Meteorological Centre at Hyderabad caters to the weather services for the state of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana

  • Cyclone Warning Centre at Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) provides cyclone warnings.

Rainfall Distribution Pattern

GoI observed rainfall data from more than 3000 rain-gauge stations spread over the country for 115 years (1901 - 2015)

Inferences from these studies based on the 115 years of rainfall data are as follows:

  • There is no long term change or trend in the monsoon rainfall averaged over the country.

  • Even though, there are no changes in the all-India rainfall, there are significant changes in annual rainfall in some meteorological sub-divisions.

  • Rainfall over Kerala, East Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (NMMT) show decreasing trends.

  • Rainfall over coastal Karnataka, Maharashtra and Jammu and Kashmir show an increasing trend.

  • There is a general tendency of increasing frequency of extreme rainfall (heavy rainfall events) over India, especially over the central parts of India during SW (June- September) monsoon season.

  • There is no evidence of global warming on the observed changes in annual or seasonal rainfall over India.

  • Growing evidence suggesting that increasing frequency of extreme rainfall is due to global warming.

  • The climate change assessment made by IPCC suggest that in future, frequency of extreme rainfall may increase over India due to increase in global warming.

  • NO other long term changes/trends in rainfall over India which can be attributed to global warming. Indian Monsoon is found to be a stable system.

Focus Areas in News (Week 3 - 2018)!

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  • Srihari Nataraj, best swimmer at the National Aquatics Championships 2017

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  • International Workshop on Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (IWDRI)

  • Sangeet Nakat Academi Fellowship Awards

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Forthcoming Lectures

  • International Court of Justice 📹

  • Urban Waste Management 📹

  • NDMA Guidelines 📹

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Monsoon Mission - CFS & UM (Current Affairs/GS 2018) - (In Hindi)

Dr. Manishika Jain explains Monsoon Mission - Basis - CFS and UM model

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- Published/Last Modified on: January 25, 2018

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