Supercomputer’S at IMD to Forecast Monsoon Based on Dynamical Model (Download PDF)

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India Meteorological Department (IMD) will use supercomputers to forecast India՚s annual summer monsoon as announced by the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences. The model will be based on a dynamical monsoon system and will be operational from year 2017. IMD model will be used along with the present traditional ensemble model.

India Meteorological Department
  • The IMD relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure.

What is IMD?

  • TheIndia Meteorological Department (IMD) , also known as the MetDepartment, is an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India.
  • IMD is headquartered in New Delhi and operates hundreds of observation stations acrossIndia and Antarctica.
Map of India Meteorological Department
  • IMD is also one of the sixRegional Specialised Meteorological Centres of the World Meteorological Organization.
  • It has the responsibility for forecasting, naming, and distribution of warnings fortropical cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean region.

Mission of IMD

  • IMD undertakes observations, communications, forecasting and weather services.
  • In collaboration with theIndian Space Research Organisation, the IMD also uses the IRS series and the Indian National Satellite System (INSAT) for weather monitoring of the Indian subcontinent.
  • IMD was the first weather bureau of a developing country to develop and maintain its own satellite system.
  • IMD is regional nodal agency for forecasting, naming, and disseminating warnings abouttropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean north of the Equator.

Oscillations Monsoon System

  • This system Model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers (supercomputers) and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.
  • This modern forecasting system is being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) , Pune.
  • The oscillations monsoon system is also called the conjunctive Forecast System version 2. So far, it has achieved only 60 % accuracy in forecasting the monsoon.
  • This method is broadly used in forecasting weather over a few days. But using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.

Cooperative System

  • Now, IMD relies on an ensemble model for forecasting monsoon. This traditional system uses an arithmetic technique.
  • IMD uses an average of 6 meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure.
  • These meteorological values are traditionally derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon. However, this traditional approach in has failed to predict monsoon recent decades (for instance in 2002 and 2004) leading meteorologists to call for a new, modern forecasting system

- Published/Last Modified on: August 1, 2016

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