ISS Syllabus Statistics Paper III (Subjective Type) Revised 2016

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(I) Sampling Techniques:

  • Concept of population and sample, need for sampling, complete enumeration versus sampling, basic concepts in sampling, sampling and Hon—sampling error, Methodologies in sample surveys (questionnaires, sampling design and methods followed in field investigation) by NSSO.

  • Subjective or purposive sampling, probability sampling or random sampling, simple random sampling with and without replacement. estimation of population means, population proportions and their standard errors. Stratified random sampling. proportional and optimum allocation, comparison with simple random sampling for filed sample size. Covariance and Variance Function.

  • Ratio, product and regression methods of estimation. estimation of population means, evaluation of Bias and Variance to the first order of approximation, comparison with simple random sampling.

  • Systematic sampling (when population size (H) is an integer multiple of sampling size (n)). Estimation of population mean and standard error of this estimate. comparison with simple random sampling.

  • Sampling with probability proportional to size (with and without replacement method), Des Raj and Das estimators for n2. Horvitz—Thomson estimator Equal size cluster sampling: estimators of population mean and total and their standard errors, comparison of cluster sampling with SRS in terms of intra—class correlation coefficient,

  • Concept of multistage sampling and its application, two—stage sampling with equal number of second stage units, estimation of population mean and total. Double sampling in ratio and regression methods of estimation.

  • Concepts of Interpenetrating sub — sampling.

(Ii) Econometrics

  • Nature of econometrics, the general linear model (GLM) and its extensions, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation and prediction, generalized least squares (GIS) estimation and prediction, heteroscedastic disturbances, pure and mixed estimation.

  • Auto correlation, its consequences and tests. Theil BLUS procedure. estimation and prediction, multi—collinearity problem. its implications and tools for handling the problem, ridge regression.

  • Linear regression and stochastic regression. instrumental variable estimation, errors in variables, autoregressive linear regression, lagged variables, distributed lag models, estimation of lags by OLS method. Koyck, geometric lag model. Simultaneous linear equations model and its generalization, identification problem. restrictions on structural parameters rank and order conditions.

  • Estimation in simultaneous equations model, recursive systems. 2 SLS estimators. limited information estimators, k—class estimators, 3 SLS estimator, full information maximum likelihood method, prediction and simultaneous confidence intervals.

(Iii) Applied Statistics:

Index Numbers: Price relatives and quantity or volume relatives. Link and chain relatives composition of index numbers; Laspeyre’s, Paasches: Marshal Edgeworth and Fisher index numbers: chain base index number, tests for index number. Construction of index numbers of wholesale and consumer prices. Income distribution—Pareto and Engel curves. Concentration curve, Methods of estimating national income. Inter—sectoral flows. Inter—industry table. Role of CSO. Demand Analysis

  • Time Series Analysis: Economic time series, different components, illustration, additive and multiplicative models, determination of trend, seasonal and cyclical fluctuations.

  • Time series as discrete parameter stochastic process, auto covariance and autocorrelation functions and their properties.

  • Exploratory time Series analysis, tests for trend and seasonality. exponential and moving average smoothing. 1-lolt and Winters smoothing, forecasting based on smoothing.

Detailed study of the stationary processes:

  1. moving average (MA),

  2. auto regressive (AR).

  3. ARMA and

  4. AR integrated MA (ARIMA) models.

Box—Jenkins models, choice of AR and MA periods.

  • Discussion (without proof) of estimation of mean, auto covariance and

  • autocorrelation functions under large sample theory, estimation of ARIMA model parameters.

  • Spectral analysis of weakly stationary process, periodogram and correlogram analyses, computations based on Fourier transform.

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